Recent work on scaling up Gaussian process regression (GPR) to large datasets has primarily focused on sparse GPR, which leverages a small set of basis functions to approximate the full Gaussian process during inference. However, the majority of these approaches are batch methods that operate on the entire training dataset at once, precluding the use of datasets that are streaming or too large to fit into memory. Although previous work has considered incrementally solving variational sparse GPR, most algorithms fail to update the basis functions and therefore perform suboptimally. We propose a novel incremental learning algorithm for variational sparse GPR based on stochastic mirror ascent of probability densities in reproducing kernel Hilbert space. This new formulation allows our algorithm to update basis functions online in accordance with the manifold structure of probability densities for fast convergence. We conduct several experiments and show that our proposed approach achieves better empirical performance in terms of prediction error than the recent state-of-the-art incremental solutions to variational sparse GPR.

Your Out-of-Distribution Detection Method is Not Robust!

We algorithmically construct multi-output Gaussian process priors which satisfy linear differential equations.

Algorithmic decisions about individuals require predictions that are not only accurate but also fair with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender and race. Causal notions of fairness align with legal requirements, yet many methods assume access to detailed knowledge of the underlying causal graph, which is a demanding assumption in practice. We propose a learning framework that achieves interventional fairness by leveraging a causal graph over \textit{clusters of variables}, which is substantially easier to estimate than a variable-level graph. With possible \textit{adjustment cluster sets} identified from such a cluster causal graph, our framework trains a prediction model by reducing the worst-case discrepancy between interventional distributions across these sets. To this end, we develop a computationally efficient barycenter kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) that scales favorably with the number of sensitive attribute values. Extensive experiments show that our framework strikes a better balance between fairness and accuracy than existing approaches, highlighting its effectiveness under limited causal graph knowledge.

Simulating a Gaussian process requires sampling from a high-dimensional Gaussian distribution, which scales cubically with the number of sample locations. Spectral methods address this challenge by exploiting the Fourier representation, treating the spectral density as a probability distribution for Monte Carlo approximation. Although this probabilistic interpretation works for stationary processes, it is overly restrictive for the nonstationary case, where spectral densities are generally not probability measures. We propose regular Fourier features for harmonizable processes that avoid this limitation. Our method discretizes the spectral representation directly, preserving the correlation structure among spectral weights without requiring probability assumptions. Under a finite spectral support assumption, this yields an efficient low-rank approximation that is positive semi-definite by construction. When the spectral density is unknown, the framework extends naturally to kernel learning from data. We demonstrate the method on locally stationary kernels and on harmonizable mixture kernels with complex-valued spectral densities.

Stochastic simulation is widely used to study complex systems composed of various interconnected subprocesses, such as input processes, routing and control logic, optimization routines, and data-driven decision modules. In practice, these subprocesses may be inherently unknown or too computationally intensive to directly embed in the simulation model. Replacing these elements with estimated or learned approximations introduces a form of epistemic uncertainty that we refer to as submodel uncertainty. This paper investigates how submodel uncertainty affects the estimation of system performance metrics. We develop a framework for quantifying submodel uncertainty in stochastic simulation models and extend the framework to digital-twin settings, where simulation experiments are repeatedly conducted with the model initialized from observed system states. Building on approaches from input uncertainty analysis, we leverage bootstrapping and Bayesian model averaging to construct quantile-based confidence or credible intervals for key performance indicators. We propose a tree-based method that decomposes total output variability and attributes uncertainty to individual submodels in the form of importance scores. The proposed framework is model-agnostic and accommodates both parametric and nonparametric submodels under frequentist and Bayesian modeling paradigms. A synthetic numerical experiment and a more realistic digital-twin simulation of a contact center illustrate the importance of understanding how and how much individual submodels contribute to overall uncertainty.

Specifically, we summarize our contributions into the following points.

The conventional approach to imputing longitudinal data is to employ a parametric model with mixed-effects, such as the linear mixed-effects model.